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Ahmed El-Tahry writes: The future of Trump.. How do we read the November 6 elections?


Tuesday 30th of October 2018 01:57 PM

In general, the American political issue is a global concern that goes beyond the borders of the united states or even the political horizon of the American electorate.

In a special case, such as that set up by US President Donald Trump since his election in November 2016 and his inauguration as president in January 2017, this interest is doubling because we are in front of a US administration reshaping the US international presence through new frameworks pushing for a new world order.

The repositioning of the United States during the Trump era appeared in clear terms, and its consequences for the region and the world continue to be carried out, as these lines are being written.

We are in front of an American administration that began to disavow an international agreement signed by a previous administration in the settlement the nuclear crisis with Iran, and then made a decision to transfer the US Embassy in Tel Aviv to the occupied Jerusalem. Thus, the United States withdrew itself as a sponsor of the peace process to the position of a side to the peace process, so biased side .. We are also in front of the administration announced that NATO no longer has support within the White House, did not find any problems in getting out of the nuclear weapons agreement with Moscow, and declared that China is the explicit opponent, and the economic battle is the title of the stage.

On the other hand, this administration has worked to reform the relationship with Egypt after the deterioration under the Bush administration and Barack Obama.

The American voter has nothing to do with Trump's international confusion, but the reality of an economic recovery is the best since the end of Bill Clinton's reign. Trump has been able to carry out the vast majority of his electoral promises in less than two years. Trump receives support from Republicans majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, even if someone criticizes Trump, but it is not an obstacle to his ambition, but this will be different after the sixth of November (the date of midterm elections to Congress), a crucial date in the course of the US administration during the remaining period in the first term, as well as he Will continue to run for a second term.

On Nov. 6, the election process will be held for 36 state governors, 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate.

Let's start by reading the future of the majority in the Senate. "The current composition" says Republicans make up a simple majority of 51 seats to 47 Democrats. There are two independent seats. The reelection will be on only 9 seats for Republicans and 24 for the Democrats. Thus, with traditional election calculations, Republican retention of the Senate majority is the most realistic. If Republicans retain a simple majority of the Senate, there is no possibility of isolating Trump as promoted by the US media over the past few months.

In the House of Representatives, the situation is different, and the Democrats' chances of grabbing the majority are forthcoming in line with the psychology of the US voter who is in favor of change, The matter which has stabilized with the midterm elections in general, meaning that if the majority is Republican it will change them in the midterm to democracy and vice versa. The current picture is the Republican control of the House of Representatives by 263 seats compared to 193 seats for Democrats and each need to reach the number of 218 seats in the next election to be considered the majority party.

The battle in its current form on the ground is easier for the Republicans and they wait for the challenge to keep the majority of the two houses while the Democrats' battle is more difficult. The challenge for them is to control the House of Representatives, but their control the congress is a miracle.

Republicans are battling with the weapon of economic superiority - unemployment, domestic market growth and tax cuts - as Democrats are battling with the weapon of American values, particularly with regard to Trump's hard-line policies toward immigrants.

If Republicans manage to keep the majority of the two houses Trump will go to a more distant horizon internally and externally, and ensure the next presidential term. If the Democrats win the majority of the House of Representatives, Trump will have difficult months until the next presidential election because he will find those who hinder his project internally and embarrass him externally with different policies .

CEO : Dr. Mohamed El Baz
Chief Editors : Ahmed Eltahry