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Ahmed El Tahry writes, Egypt and the theaters of war in the Middle East

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Sunday 19th of May 2019 03:10 PM

preparing the field of  battle in the  Arabian Gulf is the news of the hour in the world now. With the arrival of US naval vessels in the face of Iran's territorial waters, speculation is growing about a long-awaited military action against Iran. Many leaks have made their way to the world press over a whole year. Iran has been working in the past few weeks and months to prepare alternative and intermediate alternative theaters outside Iran, specifically in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and the Gaza Strip, through two regional agents to enable it to conduct a number of battles. For small guided and influential through the use of long-range missiles.

In an assessment of the position of Michael Knights at the Washington Institute, he explained that  the process of transferring Iranian missile transfers abroad, was carried out in a distinctive pattern. First, long-range artillery rockets (sometimes better refined) are supplied, and short-range ballistic missiles are added. When longer ranges are required, long-range ballistic missiles are provided. These increases in the range of missiles not only increase the number of targets that can be reached, but also allow for the allocation of a wider range of launch sites that are difficult to foresee. The authorization of regional agents to equip the launchers allows Iran to increase the number of strikes with minimal risk compared to firing from its territory or using Iranian elements. There are several examples of this pattern:

* Lebanon:

Hezbollah has got The ballistic missiles, the most important weapon has been supplied by Iran to its proxies, since decades. By 2006, the militia had built a huge arsenal - notably short-range rockets, along with a few hundred Fajr-5 artillery rockets with a range of 75 kilometers, Zelzal-3 rockets with a range of 300 kilometers, Syrian- M-600 "(a copy of the Iranian missile" Fateh-110 ") 300 km. During the war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah fired about 4,000 shells across the border. Current assessments indicate that the Party's arsenal of long-range artillery rockets currently stands at a few thousand and that its arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles reaches a few hundred, some of which have been given the advantage of precision guidance and planted in populated areas.

* Gaza :

Iran supplied  the two palestinian movements of Hamas and PIJ with rockets and the ability to produce and repair them locally, including the Fajr-5 (also known as the M-75) with a range of 75 kilometers. The rockets were fired from Gaza towards Tel Aviv last month and a barrage of short-range rockets was fired into Israel on May 4 and 5.

* Syria :

Iran has supplied its Syrian allies with ready-made missiles and the ability to produce them, including M-600 missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. In May 2013, it was reported that Israel had struck a hidden M-600 rocket store near Damascus. By 2018, Iran had deployed manufacturing facilities, launch pads and munitions in Syria, prompting Israeli forces to target them. In response, Iran's proxies fired dozens of rockets into Israel in May 2018, as well as a heavy rocket (perhaps the M-600) in January 2019.

* Yemen.

Since the outbreak of the current war in Yemen in 2015, Iran has taught the Huthis how to produce a 150-km "Badr-P" artillery and how to convert SA-2 missiles into a free-range K-1 missile and a 250-kilometer The "M2-capable" model (equivalent to the Iranian Tonder-69) with a range of 400 kilometers. It also sent a copy of the Qaim-1 short-range ballistic missile (known by the Houthis as "volcano 2-H") with a range of 1,000 km. According to the United Nations, the Iranian Martyr Baqri Industrial Group made this rocket especially so that the Houthis could hit Riyadh and other Saudi cities. The United Nations also said that Iran had supplied the rebels with equipment for the production of oxidants used in these short-range ballistic missiles with longer-range liquid fuels.

Iraq:

There is growing concern in Iraqi, American and Israeli intelligence circles that Iran is secretly supplying long-range artillery to its proxy militias in Iraq, including Katteb Hezbollah and the Hezbollah nogabaa movement, which the United States has designated as terrorist organizations, Also. According to some reports, these Shiite proxy organizations have developed special use of safe bases in the Diyala governorates (such as Camp Ashraf), Salah al-Din (Camp Speicher), Baghdad (Jarf al-Sakhr), Karbala (Razazah) and Wasit (Essaouira). It is also widely recognized that the militias have developed a line of command and control extending to Iran via Diyala, which allows them to import missiles and equipment without government approval or knowledge. Accurate guidance systems may soon be on their way to Iraq.

It is certain that igniting the matter and reaching a direct military clash is a regional disaster by all standards, It would confuse many accounts and redefines political and strategic concepts in the region. This leads us to research how to preserve Egyptian interests in the midst of this scene.

First: The ruling elements of the Egyptian position in the Gulf region.

The Arab Gulf region is of special importance to Egypt as it represents the weight of the Arab system, as well as the millions of Egyptian workers living in the Gulf States. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were specifically important partners to Egypt in its basic battle against terrorism and behind it the Brotherhood and its international organization on the one hand, Therefore, Egypt will not allow and will not accept aggression against any Gulf country, but it will not participate in any coalition that is formed to direct military action against Iran. This is my conviction that I built on the characteristics of Egypt's regional character which is not born of the moment.

Second: Implications on the direct neighborhood of Egypt;

Egypt is in the midst of its battle against terrorism on the one hand and the pursuit of real development on the other. It has been suffering from a geographic environment that is not suitable for its ambition. It is pushing it to adopt a calm and balanced policy to preserve its interests. The direct neighborhood of Egypt, whether in the Gaza Strip, Sudan or Libya, suffer a state of Polarization and liquidity.

This geographical proximity is exposed to real danger in the event of a war with Iran, whether the Gaza Strip is different in its loyalties or Sudan is confused or Libya is approaching the moment of decisiveness, and therefore, it is difficult that Egypt accepts to change equations that were done in favor of its geographical vicinity, or to be affected or exploited In the impact on its development course. It is certain that any targeting of the Egyptian interests by the neighborhood will be met by a decisive Egyptian reaction.

Third: the confrontation with Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean

The events proved the sincerity of the vision of the Egyptian political leadership and the integrity of the process of comprehensive modernization that took place for the Egyptian armed forces and especially the Egyptian Navy, and the process of modernization while some in Egypt speaks of its feasibility under the difficult economic situation..

Now, the importance of having capacity emerged after the hostility declared by Turkey Against Egypt after the success of Egypt in the demarcation of its maritime border with Cyprus and enable them to discover and extract their huge wealth in the waters of the Mediterranean, which has eliminated many dreams of Turkey and Qatar alike.. Turkey seeks to stop the Egyptian rise under the indications that Egypt  will be The hub for energy in the Middle East. so, turkey is seeking to change the status quo imposed by Egypt. A few days ago, Turkey launched the largest naval exercise in its history, dubbed the "Sea Wolf." On the same day, Egypt announced the launch of the third " Gowind-2500 ".

The importance of the Eastern Mediterranean region prompted many news channels and research centers to talk about the possibility of the Egyptian-Turkish confrontation in this region and provided many reports and papers including the inventory and monitoring of the military capabilities of the Egyptian navy compared to the Turkish counterpart, all of which confirmed that the modernization process carried out for the Egyptian Navy The Russian channel reported in its report on the Egyptian navy, it is possible to say that it outperforms the Turkish navy in the number of armament and strength, as the Egyptian Navy has two carriers of the "Mistral", and Goo Modern German "Taip", "Frim" and "Oliver Hazard" frigates, and rocket boats such as the Russian Molinia, which contains the musketeers and supersonic boats.

In addition, the construction of the third Egyptian corvette was completed. It is called "Gowind-2500". It is 2600 tons, 102 meters wide, 16 meters wide, 47 km / h maximum and 6850 km.

The capabilities of the Egyptian navy are not frigates and missile boats only, but the Egyptian forces have large air support capabilities such as fighter jets and attack helicopters, such as the French "Rafal", the Russian MiG-29, the F-16 and the helicopters. "Ka-52" Russian offensive, and other means of electronic warfare.

Egyptian navy capabilities does not stop the frigates and missile boats, but the Egyptian forces have large air support capabilities such as fighter jets and attack helicopters, such as the French "Rafal", the Russian MiG-29, the F-16 and the helicopters. "Ka-52" Russian offensive, and other means of electronic warfare.

CEO : Dr. Mohamed El Baz
Chief Editors : Ahmed Eltahry